瑞銀汪濤料下半年中國將進一步降息10個基點 或降準25個基點
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,7月政治局會議一如預期設定了更為積極的政策基調,指出要繼續實施積極的財政政策,預期未來各政府部門和地方政府或將出台更多具體的政策舉措。
她預期,內地信貸增速將從6月份的9%,反彈至第四季的10%,信貸脈衝將從6月的負3.2%反彈至12月的正2.4%,預計下半年將進一步小幅降息10個基點,從而降低實體經濟融資成本。
政治局會議指出要發揮總量和結構性貨幣政策工具作用,表明貨幣政策定調更為積極。瑞銀認為央行可能在下半年進一步降準25個基點,並通過再貸款工具和公開市場操作等方式擴表,確保銀行間流動性充裕,提供充足的信貸支援。
汪濤估計,今年新增信貸的15%至20%可能用於償還存量債務的利息支出,因而未來幾個月政府需要加碼信貸支援,配合准財政政策的擴張,確保對實體經濟提供充足的信貸支援。
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