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《大行報告》花旗料內房股上半年核心盈利按年跌32% 首選潤地(01109.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、貝殼(02423.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)
花旗發表報告,預計內房股上半年核心盈利按年跌32%,回落至2014和2015上半年水平。在銷售不足的情況下,資產負債表表現繼續倒退。該行預計,內房行業淨負債比率可能升至76%,去年底為74%,在溫和投地等投資下債務大致穩定。 該行指,受政策預期推動,內房股股價在6月短暫反彈後於7月回落。內房股第三季仍然挑戰重重,流動性憂慮再起。在政策進一步明朗之前,該行指在行業仍然有限度地選股,更傾向於資產負債表溫和擴張、去年和今年土地儲備充足以及市場份額擴大的公司。 花旗認為,目前投資者已一定程度上消化因季節性因素和流動性收緊而導致7月和8月銷售疲軟,但仍存在部分憂慮如更多房企出現重組、上半年業績、宏觀數據疲軟、美元走強等因素。該行行業首選為華潤置地(01109.HK)、綠城管理控股(09979.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、貝殼-W(02423.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)。
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