《大行報告》花旗:政治局會議稱要適時優化房產政策 爲進一步寬鬆打開大門
花旗發表報告,就中共中央政治局昨日召開會議,分析研究當前經濟形勢,爲今年下半年經濟工作定下政策基調,指當局坦承經濟發展出現「新困難」,但政策應對仍保持耐心,並指當局最大的舉措就是「適時調整優化房地產政策」,這爲進一步的房地產寬鬆打開了大門。
該行亦指,中央政治會議首次提出「活躍資本市場」,同時指人民幣匯率要保持穩定,以防範風險爲重點,要「統籌推進化解地方政府債務風險」,在這樣的政策背景下,料中國經濟可能會艱難地度過今年下半年。
花旗表示,中央政治局會議沒有提到「房住不炒」,並指會「適時調整優化房地產政策」,相關政策基調基本符合該行對內房行業爲重點的適度刺激措施的預期,指相關政策很重要,但仍可能需要數週或幾個月的時間才能看到執行情況和真正的影響。
該行指就當局對內地房地產政策變化的訊號和地方債務問題的暗示,可能會受到市場歡迎,但如果高層若保持耐心,此類「非火箭筒」刺激措施仍可能達不到市場預期,甚至落後於市場預期。目前尚不清楚政策支持將在多大程度上以及多長時間內落實到房地產行業。該行維持對中國今年GDP按年增長5%的預測。
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