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中銀香港料第三季美聯儲加息週期拐點臨近 相對看好中長線債券
阿思達克 07-24 12:39
中銀香港財富策略及分析處高級財富策略師張詩琪認為,全球股市交易正反映市場對於歐美通脹快速下行有較高預期,相對看好投資中長線債券。 展望第三季度,張詩琪預計美國通脹將繼續快速下行。繼5月美國通脹率創兩年最小增幅後,隨著基數效應及美國連續十次加息後,壓抑通脹效果已經開始顯現,通脹有望在未來幾個月保持下降。若通脹一如預期維持回落勢頭,張詩琪預期在第三季度美聯儲較大機會只加息一次,並將繼續採用「暫停加息及鷹派引導」的方向管理市場預期,但認為美聯儲暫時不會明確訂下暫停加息時點。 在投資策略方面,張詩琪認為應該以防守性板塊以降低組合波幅。經歷去年股票及債券同步下跌後,債券於今年第二季開始已回復其對沖股市功能。由於美國國債是加息週期最先見底的資產,故在投資組合中增持美國國債類資產,能對沖風險之餘亦能提高收益。 股票方面,她認為美股須先經歷週期性下跌,才能夠在支持性的政策與新的經濟復甦環境下,開啟可持續的牛市。至於A股在中國經濟金融中的戰略定位,以及中長期向上趨勢和邏輯沒有改變且不斷強化,伴隨經濟數據企穩反彈,A股表現將會逐步修復。 商品方面,她預期長期配置黃金更具價值,而油價將保持上落格局的走勢。名義利率下行是未來兩年的大趨勢,加上通脹具韌性,全年美債實際利率下行幾成定局,在這情況下,黃金提供了基於避險溢價的價格支持。 油價方面,OPEC+積極實施減產以提振油價,但美國頁岩油產量提升令減產策略打折;另一方面,高利率下全球經濟持續受壓,使原油需求仍存在疑慮。儘管中國原油需求有所增加,但不足以支持油價持續走強,因此預期國際油價將保持上落格局的走勢。 外匯方面,她估計美元於季內將逐步走弱。美聯儲面臨經濟增長有隱憂、通脹就業存韌性、金融環境不穩定三大因素,市場的預期隨著上述因素動態變化。隨著歐洲及英國通脹下行慢於美國,預期歐央行加息時間比美聯儲更久,美元指數逐步走弱趨勢確定,歐元等非美貨幣將走強。惟需注意當市場出現波動性,美元便能再發揮避險功能,從而支持美元走勢。
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