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《大行報告》摩通降蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至43元 評級「增持」
摩根大通發表報告指出,預計蒙牛(02319.HK)上半年銷售及盈利分別按年增長7.4%及5.2%,如剔除妙可藍多(600882.SH)後,預期公司核心銷售及盈利將增長3.7%及5%,相對於伊利股份(600887.SH)自然增長3.8%及4%。基於公司今年迄今的銷售增長及毛利率擴張,公司相信有望實現銷售達中至高的單位數增長及經盈利潤率擴張30至50點子的全年目標,意味著集團下半年銷售及盈利按年增長12.6%及22%。 該行認為,蒙牛和伊利均計劃加速下半年的增長,以達致全年指引,假設第三季需求依然溫和,市場競爭將有所加劇,意味著所有品牌都有毛利下行風險。 此外,該行將蒙牛今明兩年的盈利下調1%至2%,對公司今年銷售及盈利按年增長預測10%及12.6%,明年增長10%及18%。剔除妙可藍多後,估計公司今年的核心銷售及盈利按年增長6%及12%,明年料增長10%及17%。該行將蒙牛目標價由44元下調至43元,評級「增持」。
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