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高盛:不應擔憂美債孳息率曲線倒掛 減息預期次數減少即解困
阿思達克 07-19 02:30
美國國債孳息率曲線嚴重倒掛,引發投資者對經濟衰退前景的焦慮,但高盛認爲不需擔心。 高盛銀行首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius稱,不同意投資者對美債孳息率曲線倒掛的普遍擔憂,曲線倒掛意味投資者對降息預期足以壓倒年期的溢價,並僅於衰退風險變得清晰可見時纔會發生,但這一次情況有所不同。 他解釋,因爲期限溢價遠低於其長期平均水平,目前減息預期次數減少,即可扭轉曲線。隨着通脹降溫,相信美聯儲在不引發經濟衰退的情況下,爲下調利率開闢一條看似合理的道路。 有數據顯示,於過去七次美國經濟衰退前,三個月期國債孳息率均超過十年期國債息率。現時短期債券孳息率較長期債券高出超過150個點子,接近四十年來最大的倒掛。高盛剛剛將經濟衰退可能性的評估由25%下調至20%。
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