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《大行報告》中金降龍湖(00960.HK)目標價至23.6元 股價超跌呈配置價值
阿思達克 07-18 14:05
中金髮表研究報告指,龍湖集團(00960.HK)今年上半年權益銷售額按年增長16%至656億元人民幣,與該行預測增速相若,高於行業前十發展商平均水平,預測銷售毛利率達到17%至20%,考慮到年內部分新獲取項目可在下半年推出,估計公司全年銷售額有望達到2,000億元人民幣,即按年持平。 中金指出,龍湖期內在投資方面量入爲出,財務狀況穩健,上半年共獲取20幅土地,權益佔比維持在穩定在69%,全部位於超高和高能級城市,估計項目平均毛利率接近20%。 該行又指,龍湖獲評級機構惠譽上調公司評級展望至穩定,相信有助於與銀行端維繫良好合作關係及潛在的債務再融資,現金流壓力可控;另外購物中心等非開發業務亦爲集團帶來額外收入來源。 考慮到交付進度和結算利潤率調整等因素,中金下調龍湖今年盈利預測至196億元人民幣,明年料達166億元人民幣,分別按年下跌13%及15%,維持「跑贏行業」評級,目標價則降至23.6元,認爲目前行業啤打係數(Beta)走弱,在市場對民企財務壓力擔憂加劇下股價跌幅已超出預期,現價具備一定配置價值。
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