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《大行報告》摩通降中國今年GDP增長預至5% 料7月或降準25個基點
阿思達克 07-18 12:22
摩根大通發表報告表示,中國今年第二季GDP增長按年升6.3%,低於市場預期,該行指內地繼4月和5月經濟活動數據令人失望後,6月數據顯示工業活動適度改善,特別是在政策支持下基礎設施和製造業固定資產投資表現,但與此同時,房地產市場和私人固定資產投資依然疲弱。 預測在政策溫和放鬆的情況下,該行維持對中國第三季度和第四季度的增長預測,但將2023年GDP增長預測由5.5%下修至5%。 貨幣政策方面,摩根大通估計人行於今年第四季度會將政策利率再降10個基點,為市場利率下行打開了空間。該行維持第三季度(可能是7月)存款準備金率下調25個基點及全年社會融資規模增長9.8%的預測。該行料人行可能會擴大結構性貨幣政策操作以支持目標行業。(wl/u) ~
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