《大行報告》高盛:內地次季GDP增長遜 料當局推更多針對性寬鬆措施
高盛發表報告表示,雖然6月經數據強於預期,但中國公布第二季GDP按年增長6.3%,增長遠低於該行及市場原預測的7.1%。該行指。內地6月工業增加值增4.4%(對比5月升3.5%),雖然汽車產量增長大幅下滑,但市場已預期在高基數下會呈放緩。
該行指,中國6月社會零售銷售總額按年升3.1%(5月按年升12.7%),主要受到對新冠較敏感的餐廳銷售增長放緩的影響(6月份按年增長16.1%,對比5月份上升35.1%呈下降);汽車銷量按年跌1.1%(對比5月份按年增長24.2%),此反映上海於2022年6月被壓抑的需求釋放令基數較高有關。
高盛預計內地當局未來幾個月將採取更多有針對性的寬鬆措施,儘管預期刺激力度較之前的週期小,但本輪重點關注財政、住房和消費措施應。
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