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宏利投資管理料下半年中國有更多針對性刺激措施 支持整個亞洲市場
阿思達克 07-12 11:11
宏利投資管理環球宏觀策略部聯席主管Sue Trinh表示,近期的經濟數據顯示,已發展經濟體今年的開局優於預期,相信經濟衰退將延遲出現,但並非不出現。因為經濟活動受到金融狀況顯著寬鬆、過剩儲蓄持續減少和消費重心由貨品轉向服務這三大因素支持。環球增長率顯得相當暗淡,目前遠低於意味著衰退的3%分界線。通脹仍然令人擔憂。在收入增長強勁和經濟活動強韌等因素影響下,核心通脹居高不下,顯示勞動力供應緊張導致服務通脹升溫的風險加劇。相比市場預期,央行可能將維持為期更長的嚴格限制措施。 他指,考慮到地緣政治環境不斷演變,西方國家政府已重整政策的優次順序,更重視重建本土工業產能、縮窄經常帳赤字、提高勞動收入佔比和積極運用資本捍衛其主導地位。他認為這種新格局會加深全球「零和博弈」的意識,從而加劇地緣政治緊張局勢。他提到,儘管目前宏觀經濟環境仍存在不確定性,包括對通脹和地緣政治局勢的擔憂。展望未來,在2023年餘下時間內,將繼續重視優質的資產和技術性部署,並利用市況與個別優質企業的基本因素之間的價格錯位,繼續為投資者提供帶來穩健收入的解決方案。 宏利投資管理亞洲(日本除外)定息產品部首席投資總監Murray Collis指,中國經濟復甦在今年第二季出現放緩,預計下半年中國政策者將採取更多及更有針對性的刺激措施,不僅對中國信貸帶來支持,而且是對整個亞洲市場。與此同時,中國房地產行業的復甦情況不一,與國企相關發展商通常較受惠於中國內地政府的寬鬆政策措施。他相信聚焦於一線及二線城市的發展商,於今年下半年表現有機會優於大市。下半年看好中國房地產的投資級別債券,至於中國房地產高收益債券,仍將保持審慎並嚴選的態度。 他續指,與發達國家相比,亞洲的通脹環境可維持受控,亞洲央行處於相對有利的位置,有望在未來幾個季度保持穩定的貨幣政策,甚至轉向寬鬆的立場。在亞洲固定收益市場方面,特別看好亞洲短存續期投資級別美元債券,目前估值見吸引力,又認為亞洲債券受惠於溫和通脹壓力,以及經濟增長高於發達國家。 宏利投資管理大中華區股票部高級投資組合經理謝企剛指,看好中國內地和台灣的硬件企業,以及涉足人工智能基建和應用程式的軟件公司。隨著硬件行業的急速發展,軟件先驅已開始研發本土開放式人工智能,例如將人工智能融入不同的行業應用。
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