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瑞銀料內地信貸增速年底或小幅反彈至10%左右
阿思達克 07-12 13:25
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,考慮到房地產活動持續走弱,消費復甦動能偏弱,預計下半年政策支持有望溫和加碼,信貸增速可能在年底小幅反彈至10%左右。理想情況下,今年應實現超過10%的信貸增速以推動經濟復甦。 汪濤指,內地6月新增人民幣貸款3.05萬億,強於市場預期,主要由中長期企業貸款帶動,反映政策對基建和企業部門持續提供信貸支援。上半年新增人民幣貸款共計15.7萬億,較去年同期多增2萬億,主要來自中長期企業貸款,表明政策持續加碼。而儘管過去幾個月波動較大,上半年整體新增中長期住戶貸款較去年同期少增1,000億,反映房地產銷售乏力。 汪濤認為,下半年地方政府專項債的發行有望提速,今年剩餘的1.5萬億額度大部分會在未來幾個月陸續發行。其次,她預計政策性銀行將加大信貸力度,籌集和使用新一批專項基建投資基金,從而提振公共投資。第三,對於房地產行業而言,鑒於近期監管延長了金融支持房地產市場有關政策,未來預計部分房地產政策放鬆有望支持房地產銷售企穩,開發商融資條件和房貸有望有所改善。
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