瑞銀:人民幣兌美元下半年有望扭轉部分跌勢
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表2023年亞洲年中展望報告。展望下半年,在內需強勁、通脹下降且貨幣政策提供支持的背景下,亞洲經濟增長料將跑贏美國和歐洲。
內地市場方面,該行認為目前的估值處於週期低點,投資者持倉也較低,同時企業盈利持續改善,相信這些因素都支持繼續看好中國和整體新興市場股票的觀點。目前兩者的表現都較為落後,該行預計年底前可望取得雙位數反彈,尤其是在美國實現軟著陸的情況下。
主題方面,該行認為中國優質國企將受益於結構性改革以及股息前景改善,並預計競爭力較強的互聯網平台將受惠於宏觀經濟復甦。目前人民幣實際有效匯率偏低,下半年應會扭轉相對於美元的部分跌勢。
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