大新銀行:未來內地通脹壓力溫和 料全年整體通脹低於2%
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部表示,內地6月消費物價通脹持平,生產物價降速加快,反映經濟動力可能繼續轉弱。消費物價指數按年持平,是2021年3月以來的最低水平。
大新銀行指,整體而言,年初以來零售和服務業的復甦或正失去動力,可能拖累基本物價走勢;由於去年年中開始食品價格升幅加快,未來幾個月食品價格按年升幅可能繼續受壓,加上能源價格持續低迷,因此內地通脹壓力在可見將來仍十分溫和。大新銀行預期今年整體通脹或低於去年的2%。
大新銀行指,生產物價指數按年跌幅進一步擴大0.8個百分點至5.4%,連續九個月錄得生產物價通縮,反映工業需求持續疲弱。展望未來,環球衰退風險上升,繼續不利原油及工業品需求前景,該行估計生產物價指數短期內或續受壓,全年或會錄得通縮。(ca/u)
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