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​“夏炒電”行情再上演!高温“大烤”下,電力板塊或迎價值重估

7月7日,電力股逆市拉昇。截止發稿,大連熱電3連板,晉控電力、長青集團、京能熱力直線升停,深南電A、珈偉新能升超6%,杭州熱電、恒盛能源等跟升。

近日多地持續高温,電力需求不斷攀升。隨着各地氣温的上升,國家電網經營區域用電負荷持續走高,近期最大用電負荷已經達到8.6億千瓦至9億千瓦,同比增加7.77%。

12.5萬年以來最熱時期

入夏以來,多地迎來高温天氣。

昨日,北京發佈今夏首個高温紅色預警信號。而在此前,國家氣候中心副主任張恒德曾表示,從7月5日開始,河北大部、北京、天津、山東北部、河南中北部等地區最高氣温可達39℃至41℃。另外,據國家氣候中心消息,截至6月30日,今年以來我國平均高温日數為4.1天,為1961年以來歷史同期最多。

(來源:中央氣象台)

全球來看,當前全球平均氣温已連續3天處於歷史高位。世界氣象組織(WMO)4日稱,時隔七年後,厄爾尼諾現象再現,預計今後全球大部分地區氣温將進一步升高,可能在5年內出現創紀錄高温。根據該組織最新預測,厄爾尼諾事件在2023年下半年持續的可能性達到90%,此次事件至少為中等強度。

倫敦格蘭瑟姆研究所的氣候科學家保羅·塞皮也表示,根據冰芯、樹木年輪和沉積物等氣候數據,地球正處於大約12.5萬年以來最熱的時期。

持續的高温天氣,促使多地用電負荷持續走高。7月3日,浙江電網用電負荷突破1億千瓦,較2022年提早了8天。此前,江蘇電網用電負荷於5月29日突破1億千瓦,首次在5月份負荷破億,比去年夏季提前19天。

中國電力企業聯合會此前發佈的報吿預計,2023年全國最高用電負荷約13.7億千瓦,比2022年增加8000萬千瓦。若出現長時段大範圍極端氣候,則全國最高用電負荷可能比2022年增加1億千瓦。

部分地區將出現用電緊張

總體來看,今年全國電力供需偏緊情況或持續存在。

國家能源局副局長餘兵表示,近期多個地區氣温大幅攀升,用電高峯期提前。迎峯度夏期間電力供應總體有保障,但區域性、時段性供需矛盾仍需着力解決。

此外,根據中國電力企業聯合會提供的數據,除了南方、華東、華中等區域外,西北地區今年預計也將出現用電緊張的情況。中電聯規劃發展部主任張琳表示: “這是之前沒有出現過的。”

展望未來,銀河證券表示,儘管在支撐電源、電網加快配套建設的背景下,今年電力供需整體缺口更小,但高温極值紀錄等因素的擾動仍將對華北電網平穩運行帶來考驗。另一方面,在電力市場化改革的持續推進下,電價趨勢有望穩中小幅上升,電力現貨市場和輔助服務市場機制有望持續推廣,容量補償電價等機制有望出台。整體來看,電力板塊有望迎來盈利改善和價值重估。

信達證券指出,在電力供需矛盾緊張的態勢下,煤電頂峯價值凸顯;雙碳目標下的新型電力系統建設,或將持續依賴系統調節手段的豐富和投入。此外,伴隨着發改委加大電煤長協保供力度,電煤長協實際履約率有望邊際上升,該機構認為煤電企業的成本端較為可控,未來電力運營商的業績有望大幅改善。

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