植耀輝:港股反覆格局持續 重汽(03808.HK)候調整始吸納
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股踏入7月份後表現相當反覆,週初表現相當不俗,不過其後兩個交易日又大跌,昨日跌幅更一度超過600點。由於缺乏利好消息支持,加上投資者繼續等待刺激經濟措施出台,投資氣氛變得相當審慎之餘,對消息亦顯得格外敏感。恐怕一日未有政策相關刺激消息,港股與A股暫較難扭轉此反覆格局。
板塊方面,談談重卡板塊。筆者早年曾有研究相關行業,惟過去一年已甚少留意,所以當重汽(03808.HK)發中期盈喜,當刻亦感到有點驚訝,皆因相關板塊去年表現強差人意。不過盈喜加上股價大升,筆者亦認為值得再審視其業績。原來今年首季重汽業績已大翻身,盈利增長近八成,不過某程度上亦是與去年同期基數效應較低有關。事實上,重卡銷量一度經歷連跌21個月(按年增速下跌)之困局,直至今年3月始恢復正增長,其後亦持續有改善。引述中汽協之數據,今年首5個月重卡銷售約40萬台,按年增加23%,單計5月份則為7.7萬台,按年增加達57%。至於出口方面則首五個月約11.31萬台,按年增加近80%。
在盈喜消息公布後,重汽股價已大幅抽升,是否仍值得吸納則要視乎未來業務表現。根據第一商用車網初步統計,六月重卡銷售較去年同期仍能上升31%至7.2萬台,但環比則下跌7%;有分析認為第四季重卡需求有望實現「雙升」(按月及按年上升)。另外,亦有部分內地券商認為在2025年新能源和國六排放標準,加上國三、國四淘汰政策等因素,更新置換需求將可支持重卡需求。海外市場亦是賣點,預計2023年重卡出口將有望首次突破20萬台。可以說行業景氣有望繼續支持股價造好。只是近期升勢確有點過急,因此建議可待其股價回落至15元以下始再作部署。
筆者並未持有相關股份~
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