《大行報告》大和:市場過分擔憂內銀地方債風險 誇大真實影響
大和發表研究報告指,對於有分析指計及所有地方政府債務後,發現整體規模龐大,惟該行認為有關分析忽略了不同省份在財務定位的差異,又指經濟強勁的省份擁有較大GDP、相當健康的公共財政,以及其優質債務規模較多,但債務壓力有限。因此,面臨較大債務壓力的省份佔債務總額相對較小。另外,早前基礎設施的投資回報因疫情而延遲,該行相信,這情況會逐漸得到緩解。
該行指,市場過分擔憂內銀地方債風險,並誇大真實影響,建議投資者在下結論前,應多理解中國經濟的複雜性,並回顧過去內地如何處理銀行業的長期問題。該行維持對內地銀行業的「中性」評級,目前偏好國有銀行、其次為地方銀行,最後為股份銀行(JSB)。(ca/u)
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