《大行報告》花旗料本港今年下半年GDP增長加快至6.1% 估全年增4.5%
花旗發表研究報告,預料本港經濟復甦速度將超越最初通關後帶來的效益,以及今年利好的對比基數;短期仍然憂慮中國經濟復甦步伐,但隨着本港零售及服務行業復甦,若香港能通過新機遇而擴大其超級聯繫人的角色,便能加強投資信心。該行指,下半年及後本港製定政焦點放在解決重大問題,如住房或土地供應、人才競爭、勞動力短缺、尋找新的商業夥伴,以及大灣區城市之間的互聯互通。
該行指,本港正經歷K型復甦步伐,主要是受惠於內地出境旅遊增長強勁,但亦受到內地對進口商品需求低迷等影響,又指消費可能是今年本港經濟增長的主要動力。該行預計,本港下半年GDP增長加快至6.1%(上半年爲2.8%),全年則錄得按年4.5%增長。
對於美元兌港元而言,中國額外政策支持和美聯儲7月之後加息的決定可能會成爲匯率波動的主因,該行預計美元兌港元大致保持在7.80至7.85區間。 踏入2024年,美聯儲可能降息的時機等因素應會推動美元兌港元走強,即7.75。(ca/k)
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