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花旗料本港樓價下半年或跌6% 料P加0.25厘
花旗集團大中華區經濟師雷智顏預料,下半年聯儲局將會於7月、9月各加息25個基點,主要是美國經濟數據偏強。惟她預料,美國經濟將會呈現技術性衰退,故聯儲局將會於明年首季減息75個基點。 她表示,整體港元流動性依然充裕,但HIBOR上行壓力依然存在,主要是受到聯儲局加息步伐的影響。她料直至年底三個月HIBOR將升至5.5厘,而港元最優惠利率(Prime rate)或會跟隨上調25個基點。 她表示,香港樓價下半年或有6%下行空間,全年整體樓價持平,主要是加息周期令買家入市壓力上升。雖然最壞時段已過,惟料短期內無太多正面因素出現。 她預測,本港全年GDP增長達4.5%,明年達3.9%,又指雖然內地經濟復甦憂慮持續,但投資信心開始改善,運輸運力加快提升。她又預料,內地今年全年GDP增長達5.5%,明年則達4.6%。 花旗集團中國股票策略師劉顯達預料,恆指今年底有望達22,000點,明年初達23,000點;滬深300指數目標年底達4,550點,明年達4,800點。 在港股方面,花旗看好網易(09999.HK)、周大福(01929.HK)、金沙中國(01928.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、申洲(02313.HK),友邦(01299.HK)及華潤燃氣(01193.HK)。
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