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大眾品中報前瞻:守望底部價值,期待復甦延續

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:薛緣 顧訓丁 湯學章

綜合考慮業績預期以及估值水平,食品飲料大眾品投資建議如下:1)細分景氣賽道/個股;2)逆勢反轉邏輯標的;3)低估值底部佈局標的。

乳製品估值底部區間,年內盈利能力提升確定性高。

2023H1乳製品行業需求弱復甦,Q2多數乳企液奶收入環比恢復至正增長、冷飲維持同比較快增長,奶粉及奶酪業務承壓。今年以來奶價下跌超預期,參考2014年,奶價較快走低對於當年盈利提升較明顯,看好在產品結構逐步改善、奶價下跌、競爭可控下,龍頭乳企的盈利能力提升趨勢。

調味品:景氣度仍待恢復,關注盈利彈性釋放。

調味品行業景氣度仍在恢復過程中,B端關注餐飲行業景氣度恢復,C端在去年高基數下短期壓力相對明顯。隨着原材料價格逐步下行,預計行業的盈利改善趨勢將逐步展現。板塊投資重點關注:①個股改革成效;②盈利彈性。複合調味品短期C端承壓,B端彈性抵消部分壓力。

速凍行業:餐飲彈性兑現&商超承壓,盈利持續穩健。

短期看,C端消費整體放緩,尤其是傳統商超渠道,2023年2-5月商超速凍食品均下滑15%+,廠家加速佈局社區生鮮超市、社區電商、電商、會員超市等渠道;2023年二季度B端市場在去年同期低基數下,仍表現出較大彈性。

零食:零食個股成長邏輯全年繼續演繹。

消費承壓背景下,量販零食店、新型電商、會員超市店渠道仍將是零食行業主要的增量渠道。鹽津鋪子、甘源食品等供應鏈能力強、多品類的零食企業,積極主動擁抱量販零食渠道、新型電商渠道獲得逆勢成長,同時甘源通過高端、創新的口味堅果佈局會員超市店實現了產品性價比和高端差異化的雙輪驅動增長。勁仔食品更多是爆品邏輯(定量裝魚乾、鵪鶉蛋、魔芋)+渠道現代化(電商渠道+KABC超渠道滲透)邏輯。

輕餐飲連鎖:拓店符合預期,成本壓制盈利。

門店端,行業整體仍然延續較快拓店速度,2023H1絕味食品、周黑鴨、巴比食品新開店分別超1000、500、600家。單店端,2023Q2單店仍處恢復過程中,考慮門店結構,報表端單店預期仍有明顯缺口。盈利端,考慮短期鴨副價格高位以及豬肉等原材料價格影響,絕味食品、周黑鴨、巴比食品盈利能力仍有壓力。

其他:

1)烘焙板塊:整體需求仍處於恢復過程中,短期銷售增速仍有壓力。

2)保健品:短期保健品需求韌性較強,長期人口結構變動利好保健品需求穩步釋放。

3)軟飲。

風險因素:

消費景氣度下行;餐飲恢復不及預期;提價成效不及預期;行業競爭加劇;新興渠道衝擊超預期;原材料價格持續上行;食品安全問題。

本文節選自中信證券研究部已於2023年7月6日發佈的《大眾品丨中報前瞻:守望底部價值,期待復甦延續》報吿,具體分析內容(包括相關風險提示等》請詳見報吿。若因對報吿的摘編而產生歧義,應以報吿發布當日的完整內容為準。

分析師:薛緣 食品飲料首席分析師 S1010514080007;顧訓丁 食品飲料分析師 S1010519110002;湯學章 食品飲料分析師 S1010520090006

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