《大行報告》招銀國際:小鵬(09868.HK)7月新訂單將是下半年銷售趨勢關鍵指標
招銀國際發表中國新能源汽車行業報告,總結了特斯拉(TSLA.US)、蔚來-SW(09866.HK)、理想汽車-W(02015.HK)、小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK)和廣汽(02338.HK)旗下埃安今年6月於內地領先指標,包括客戶流量和新訂單量等。數據基於中國15個主要城市的96家門店(每個品牌15至18家門店)的樣本。該行認為特斯拉仍具有韌性,而蔚來汽車6月份的關鍵指標低於該行的預期。
領先數量而言,特斯拉按月漲幅最大,雖然於今年6月推出了大量價格具有競爭力的新車型,但特斯拉每店的潛在客戶數量仍然是所有六個品牌中最高的,並且六個月增幅最大(按月增長12%)。蔚來汽車6月按月則下降5%,弱於該行之前預期,因為蔚來於6月12日降價,並於6月15日推出ET5 Touring。理想汽車、小鵬汽車、比亞迪和埃安每店銷售數量按月增長2至3%。6月份各品牌的轉換率按月基本穩定在10至13%。埃安6月轉化率在六大品牌中最高,蔚來則連續四個月最低。
從客流方面,特斯拉按月漲幅最大,特斯拉上月每店客流按月增長7%,可能得益於6月下旬Model 3的相關的返利。6月小鵬汽車的每店客流量下降幅度最大(按月跌3%),但預期在G6的推動下,7月份客流量可能會大幅反彈。而理想汽車和比亞迪6月份單店客流量按月基本穩定。
新能源汽車各品牌間今年起新訂單表現分化,特斯拉、比亞迪和理想汽車的復甦更為強勁,小鵬汽車和蔚來汽車7月份的新訂單可能是其今年下半年銷售趨勢的關鍵指標。該行維持小鵬(09868.HK)「持有」評級及目標價35元,維持理想汽車(02015.HK)「買入」評級及目標價172元。
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