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《大行报告》大和降恒指年底目标至21,500点 首选友邦、神华及耐世特等
大和发表港股及A股市场下半年前景报告,虽然看好中国疫情后的经济复苏,但对当局刺激措施的规模相对保守预期,该行亦预期美元回转和地缘政治风险「边际放松」因素可能会引发外资从今年第三季度末开始回流中国股市。 该行料2023年中国股市将呈现「N型」格局,并可能在2023年次季出现第二度市场下跌,指在投资者预期错配的推动下,今年以来A股和香港股市的走势基本符合该行的预期,从去年12月至今年1月曾出现短暂上涨,其后大市出现回调。该行认为估值主要反映了投资者对中国经济的担忧,从经济基本面到地缘政治风险。 大和表示,对中国股市保持「谨慎乐观」态度,并建议藉2023年下半年市场上行趋势出现任何弱势时进行吸纳。该行亦下调对恒指今年年底目标预测,由22,500点降至21,500点,基于人民币走弱因素,下修对恒指今年成份股盈利增长预测由9.3%降至6%;该行亦降上证综合指数今年年底目标由3,550点降至3,450点。 该行指,港股首选股中新纳入耐世特(01316.HK),其余港股首选还包括友邦(01299.HK)、中国神华(01088.HK)、华润啤酒(00291.HK)、华住集团(01179.HK)及腾讯(00700.HK)。
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