《大行報告》大和降恆指年底目標至21,500點 首選友邦、神華及耐世特等
大和發表港股及A股市場下半年前景報告,雖然看好中國疫情後的經濟復甦,但對當局刺激措施的規模相對保守預期,該行亦預期美元回轉和地緣政治風險「邊際放鬆」因素可能會引發外資從今年第三季度末開始回流中國股市。
該行料2023年中國股市將呈現「N型」格局,並可能在2023年次季出現第二度市場下跌,指在投資者預期錯配的推動下,今年以來A股和香港股市的走勢基本符合該行的預期,從去年12月至今年1月曾出現短暫上漲,其後大市出現回調。該行認為估值主要反映了投資者對中國經濟的擔憂,從經濟基本面到地緣政治風險。
大和表示,對中國股市保持「謹慎樂觀」態度,並建議藉2023年下半年市場上行趨勢出現任何弱勢時進行吸納。該行亦下調對恆指今年年底目標預測,由22,500點降至21,500點,基於人民幣走弱因素,下修對恆指今年成份股盈利增長預測由9.3%降至6%;該行亦降上證綜合指數今年年底目標由3,550點降至3,450點。
該行指,港股首選股中新納入耐世特(01316.HK),其餘港股首選還包括友邦(01299.HK)、中國神華(01088.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、華住集團(01179.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)。
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