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瑞銀:內地推大型刺激經濟政策機會微 下調全年GDP增長預測至5-5.5%
阿思達克 07-05 12:43
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室大中華區股票主管李智穎認為,近期多間內地銀行下調利率,已暗示內地政府有意支持本地經濟,惟料推出大規模支持政策的機會較低。她預料,政府仍保持「房住不炒」方向,但將會著手於二線城市,如降低按揭利率、逐步放寬限購政策等,相反一線城市或未必包括其中,冀望能提高內房需求。 另外,她預料,內地個別城市會推出刺激消費政策。她表示,內地政府將電動車補貼政策延續至2027年,冀刺激本地消費,從而能帶動下半年經濟增長。她表示,市場憧憬一系列政策出台,而內地居民對其反應、以及政策帶來的效益均影響下半年中國股市表現。 她表示、隨著內地政策支持逐漸發力提振市場情緒,且消費復甦範擴大,預計市場疲態將在下半年逐步改善。由於第二季數據偏軟,故將中國全年GDP增速預測下調至5%至5.5%。 她認為,市場悲觀情緒接近高點、股市市盈率約為9.2倍令估值接近去年10月低點、在第二季財報公布前盈利增長持續改善的背景下,中國股市前景仍具吸引力。 她預料,中國股市有望從落後者轉為優勝者,故維持對中國股市到年底有中雙位數上行空間的預測,但認為投資者增加更具防集性的資產類別,有助於在波動市況下穩定投資表現。
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