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惠譽:中國車企海外擴張爭取多元化發展 惟風險猶存
惠譽評級表示,中國汽車製造商向海外市場擴張將促進其營收和利潤的多元化,在中長期內提升其業務和財務狀況,抵禦國內競爭加劇的風險。海外擴張對中國車企盈利能力的影響尚有限,不過,若車企在擴大海外銷售規模的同時保持其電動汽車在出口市場的溢價,屆時其盈利能力有望增強。然而,由於在部分海外市場的經營歷史尚短,疊加國際貿易風險攀升,車企出海仍將面臨挑戰。 惠譽預期,中國汽車出口——尤其是電動汽車出口的強勁勢頭將延續。這主要受益於全球電動化浪潮、中國在生產效率與電動汽車供應鏈方面的優勢、中國電動汽車在海外知名度的提升、以及中國政府的支持性政策。傳統燃油汽車仍是中國汽車出口的主力,但隨著其主要出口市場的需求放緩,增勢或將消退。 中國傳統車企和特斯拉中國是中國汽車出口軍團的「領頭羊」,而比亞迪(01211.HK)等本土電動汽車企業正在迎頭趕上。此外,惠譽預期,將有更多跨國車企效仿特斯拉中國的運營模式,利用中國頗具成本優勢的電動汽車供應鏈,出口在華組裝生產的車型。 在力求增加汽車出口的同時,越來越多的中國車企還赴海外建設電動汽車工廠,而東盟國家是其主要投資目的地。惠譽認為,若國際貿易壁壘加深、地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,這些海外工廠的投資或可幫助緩解車企從中國出口至海外市場面臨的潛在限制。 儘管如此,中國蓬勃發展的電動汽車出口和海外產能擴張或面臨一些國家為保護當地汽車產業、培育本土電動汽車供應鏈而加大阻力的風險。中國車企的快速擴張還將考驗管理層的能力,以監督不同的業務風險,並產生與不斷攀升的資本支出相稱的盈利水平。
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