惠譽:中資房企違約研究突顯危機初期受困房企共性
惠譽評級表示,針對受困中資房地產開發企業的違約研究突顯出危機初期陷入困境的企業具備一些共同特徵,這些共性是導致其迅速陷入困境的主要動因。
受困房企違約事件的風險外溢至整個房地產行業,而監管急劇收緊以及信心危機等一系列因素共同作用致使樓市頹勢雪上加霜。其中,蔓延至全行業的信心危機令樓市需求驟減及融資渠道劇烈收窄。這導致房地產行業深陷長期結構性下行週期,以及大量房企評級被下調或發生違約,民營房企中僅有幾家倖免於難。
惠譽認為,紛繁複雜的集團結構(包括較高的合資公司及非控股權益敞口)增加了融資安排的不透明度並提高了現金漏損的可能性,從而掣肘房企獲取項目公司現金的能力,特別是在行業嚴重下行之際。這些特徵反映在,2021年上半年惠譽的評級組合中投機級評級的佔比較高,特別是「B」類房企,這類企業在受評級遷移影響的企業中佔到大多數,其中85%已陷入困境,其次是「BB」類房企(受困房企佔比為69%)。
房企亦紛紛利用灰色融資渠道來彌補資金缺口。某些情況下透明度欠佳的融資安排(包括隱性債務或明股實債)使得房企得以誇大流動性並低估其槓桿率。這加劇了受困房企的快速陷落。
地方政府對項目層面預售監管資金的限制驟然收緊亦削弱了將集團內現金用於償還房地產項目公司以外債務的可替代性。此外,也有其他財務條約禁止提取和動用項目層面資金。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.