植耀輝:恆指難轉勢 藥明生物(02269.HK)暫未宜博反彈
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,原以為港股走勢有望好轉,但在刺激措施預期落空加上人民幣匯價持續貶值,港股及A股皆出現調整,恆指過去三個交易日便急挫822點或4.1%,並再度失守250天線(約19,550點)水平。究竟何時才推出一籃子刺激措施仍未可料(有傳在7月中央經濟工作會議後),只是市場氣氛及信心進一步轉弱的情況相當明顯。由於現時投資者入市意慾甚低,恆指要扭轉頹勢不易,恐怕要待內地真正「出招」後,走勢始有望有所好轉。但正如早前所指,即使港股有望反彈,但亦不宜有太大憧憬,始終港股缺乏「領頭羊」股份及受制於內地政策因素,何況港股上方阻力重重,250天線再度失守頓成短期阻力,另外兩萬關以及250月線(21,100點)阻力亦非輕。
股份則談談藥明生物(02269.HK)。該股續周二(20日)大跌17%後,周三(21日)股價再跌2.6%。事緣集團在投資者開放日上透露,今年上半年收入按年增長10%,盈利基本持平,維持全年收入增長30%指引;另截至5月底,新整合項目數量為25個(去年同期69個),全年目標則由120個下調至80個。由此引發投資者對集團業務前景之擔憂。
筆者本身對相關範疇了解並不深,但認為今次集團公布之數據或預測有些地方值得關注,其一是新項目數目減少是短期情況抑或是同業競爭加劇帶來之影響,若是後者的話則會否因搶項目而出現價格戰。由於情況仍未明朗,加上市況氣氛未見改善下,投資者對急跌股份亦頗有戒心,故筆者建議投資者現階段還是先忍一忍手會較好。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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投資者續靜待刺激措施
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(22日)個別發展,聯儲局主席鮑威爾於聽證會上之講話未有帶來太大影響,納指反彈近1%,不過道指則受波音(BA.US)股價下跌拖累,最終仍微跌4點。至於金龍指數則連跌第四個交易日,惟跌幅僅0.1%。
港股方面,周三(21日)在端午節假期前夕繼續捱沽,恆指一度失守19,200點水平,低見19,174點,最終收市亦跌388點或1.98%,收報19,218點,科指亦大跌113點或2.8%,收報3,961點,全日成交金額981.7億元。內需體育用品股及科技股下跌,資源股則相對硬淨。投資者仍等待政策消息,相信投資氣氛暫難有改善,故即使不排除短線會有反彈,惟空間亦相當有限,預期19,500點會有一定阻力。
從技術分析角度,恆指「三連陰」加上再度失守250天線(19,540點),走勢再度轉弱,一旦跌破19,000點關口,形勢將進一步轉差,或須下試18,500點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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