《大行報告》高盛:LPR減幅比預期小 對內銀淨息差影響中性
高盛發表研究報告指出,人行昨日(20日)宣布下調1年期和5年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)10點子,未達市場對加大刺激政策力度的預期。該行的財產風險監測顯示,預估抵押貸款提前還款的可能規模為整個行業抵押貸款餘額僅12%,意味著當局並不急於推出更大幅度的降息政策。
此外,該行認為人行最新的政策利率變動,對內銀淨息差影響中性,而當局最近的政策舉措開始幫助銀行節省融資成本。隨著近期公開市場操作(OMO)和中期借貸便利(MLF)利率下調10點子,預計銀行融資成本將進一步下降。銀行通過降低存款成本來保護淨息差,而貸款利率的下調速度超過政策利率的變動,因此可能限制本次政策利率下調的影響。
高盛預期,內銀企業貸款利率將保持穩定,而由於抵押貸款需求疲弱和非抵押貸款競爭加劇,零售需求可能會繼續下降,對招行(03968.HK)恢復零售業務增長構成更大壓力,對其持「中性」評級,因在該行所覆蓋的內銀中,招行對零售業務的敞口最大,利潤風險更高。
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