《大行報告》高盛:人行「對稱」下調一年及五年期LPR利厘 或令降長息最少0.15厘憧憬落空
高盛發表研究報告指出,人行今日(20日)同時下調一年期及五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)0.1厘,至分別3.55%及4.2%,以引導有效貸款利率下行,提振貸款需求,促進經濟增長。雖然符合該行預期,但由於五年期LPR更能反映抵押貸款利率走向,可能令憧憬下調五年期LPR最少0.15厘以提振房地產行業情緒的預測者失望。
此外,該行指內地政策制定者現允許根據當地房地產市場表現而動態調整抵押貸款利率,因此五年期LPR不再是抵押貸款利率的硬性約束。至於現有抵押貸款通常會在新年伊始重新定價,故是次降息可能只會有助於從明年年初開始降低現有抵押貸款的利息成本。然而,這可能會增加提前償還抵押貸款的需求。
該行繼續預期內地未來幾周將推出更多寬鬆政策措施,尤其是在財政、住房和消費方面,儘管刺激的規模應小於之前的寬鬆周期。鑑於更具挑戰性的長期人口趨勢、已經高企的債務水平,以及「房住不抄」口號,該行料內房寬鬆政策受限。
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