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東亞料本港全年經濟增長5.5% 7月或加息25點子
阿思達克 06-20 12:36
東亞銀行(00023.HK)相信,香港今年經濟可實現顯著復甦,料全年增5.5%,失業率則回落至約2.8%。該行首席經濟師蔡永雄指,本港復甦勢頭延續,料通脹壓力全年將溫和上升至2.7%,本港私樓價格則升約7.5%。 蔡永雄表示,香港在經濟全面重啟、跨境旅遊復常、勞工市場穩健、商業信心改善以及特區政府實施中間偏鬆的財政政策支持下,香港經濟進入新的擴張週期,多個經濟環節的增長勢頭有所增強。 利率方面,他預期,在頑固的通脹壓力下,美國加息週期仍未完結,美聯儲尚有最少1次25點子的加息空間,並將維持高利率一段較長時間。而在本輪貨幣緊縮週期,港元最優惠利率合共上升75子,升幅低於美國政策利率。由於美元利率仍有上行壓力,料港元利率尚有上調空間。 他料美國將在7月再度加息,屆時本港將跟隨加息25點子。不過,他提到,雖然本港銀行結餘只有450億,但資金是被外匯基金壓住,有需要金管局可釋放出來,因此,再度加息對樓市影響不大。 投資市場方面,該行首席投資策略師李振豪表示,該行今年恆指目標市盈率10.5倍,恆生指數下半年目標水平22,000點,正負1,500點。 他指,央企改革板塊受到關注,會利好中資電訊、內銀、電力及基建股等。而受惠於中美摩擦影響,預期新興亞洲國家經濟增長較為理想。另外,環球主要股市走勢分化,亞洲股市機會將與風險並存。他認為,美國及其他投資評級國債一年期收益率相當吸引,特別是預期年底美國或將開始減息。另外,由於全球市場放緩,選擇收息股及防守類的投資產品會較理想。
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