恆生:料整體物價水平溫和上漲 維持本港今年經濟增長4%預測
恆生銀行環球資本市場經濟研究部預料,消費會是今年香港經濟復甦的主要動力來源。受到疫病的負面影響,本地零售業在過去兩年經歷重重困難。不過,自今年年初以來,零售業終現曙光,銷售額已錄得明顯反彈。該行指,受入境旅遊的復甦所帶動,預計零售業將繼續增長;此外,7月份第二輪消費券的發放有望進一步振興消費。
該行續指,隨著環球通脹繼續下降,外部價格壓力可望有所緩解,但這或會被本地需求上升的影響所抵銷。隨著本地需求持續向好,預計整體物價水平將溫和上漲。在第二季,由於對內地經濟的擔憂加劇,本地股市較為波動。
但該行認為,中國經濟重啟加上進一步的政策刺激,有望支持今年內地經濟反彈,認為香港經濟很可能會從中受益,尤其是通過旅遊業的復甦。該行維持今年香港經濟增長4%的預測。(ca/u)
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