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《大行報告》匯豐研究:潤地(01109.HK)中海外(00688.HK)等國企內房股價調整後吸引 民企短期或跑贏偏好碧桂園(02007.HK)
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,內地經濟復甦遇阻,加上媒體報道暗示當局或釋出寬鬆政策,市場對於當局會否提供對房地產行業的政策支持爭論不斷。該行認為並沒有快速解決經濟疲弱的辦法,內地任何一籃子政策都必須有意義才能有所作為。 短期方面,該行認為當局通過降低首付款、抵押貸款利率、佣金率和交易稅來降低買家的初始支出非常重要,並需為開發商提供更多流動性支持,同時預留時間形成新的市場平衡。中期方面,應優先審慎調整土地供應機制,因隨著房屋銷售逐漸穩定、開發商財務狀況改善和土地收購變得更可負擔時,焦點將落於土地市場上。至於長期方面,為解決不斷惡化的人口結構及結構性供需失衡的問題,當局應考慮調整開發商的「預售」業務模式和推出房產稅。 該行指出,國企於內房銷售中佔據更大的市場份額,而鑑於股價回調,具有吸引力,當中偏好潤地(01109.HK)及中海外(00688.HK)。至於民營企業在今年起恢復買地,其在土地市場中的份額由2022年的14%,提高至今年首五個月的38%,預期民企短期或跑贏,當中偏好碧桂園(02007.HK)。以上三隻股份齊予以「買入」評級(見另表)。
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