You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》高盛降內地今年GDP增長預測至5.4% 料政策寬鬆力度不及過去周期
阿思達克 06-19 10:58
高盛發表研究報告,指內地5月經濟數據與4月相若,工業活動仍呆滯,房地產市場疲弱,需面對面接觸的服務行業持續復甦,但速度較首季顯著放緩。考慮4至5月在手活動數據及6月高頻數據未見顯著改善,該行將次季經濟按季增長預測由原先4.9%降至1%,並料第三季按季增長加快至6.5%,受惠政策刺激及庫存重補的影響減退。該行並將內地今年GDP增長預測由原先的6%降至5.4%。 報告稱,6月13日人行意外降逆回購利率10點子。考慮外匯形勢,高盛料人行短期將會降準而不是降息。報告解讀人行此舉意味政策制訂者不太憂慮人民幣弱勢。考慮經濟持續面對逆風,該行料未來將有更多貨幣寬鬆措施,料第三季將降準25點子,末季將降政策利率10點子。隨著美國暗示進一步加息及人行進一步政策放寬,該行將未來3個月、6個月及12個月人民幣兌美元預測,由原先7.1、7.0及6.8,分別降至7.2、7.1及6.9%。 國務院總理李強上周五(16日)主持召開國務院常務會議,研究推動經濟持續回升向好的一批政策措施等。高盛指,與市場預期有別,上周五沒有具體政策出台。這或意味政府面對多項政治及經濟限制。而走重大房地產及基建刺激的「舊路」亦與領導層強調高質量增長的模式有衝突。但對高端製造業及新能源車的政策支持已在進行,料不會產生重大增長刺激。整體而言,報告料未來數個月有更多政策放寬,但政策寬鬆力度或不及過去周期。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account