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宏利投資管理料美國通脹年底降至約3% 息口維持高水平
阿思達克 06-16 11:48
美國聯儲局在6月份議息會議上維持利率不變。宏利投資管理環球首席經濟師兼策略師Frances Donald認為,這次決議的訊息基本上可概括為經濟狀況轉佳,但息口將於較高水平維持更長時間。她指出,現時預測聯儲局有機會在7月加息,但須警愓一旦通脹回落或就業數據惡化,聯儲局便可能傾向在下一次會議維持利率不變。最重要的是,高息將維持更長時間。聯儲局主席鮑威爾在新聞發布會上提到通脹風險「呈上行趨勢」,減息可能要「留待數年之後」。換言之,鮑威爾正企圖淡化市場對提早減息的預期。 她認為,雖然主流分析可能關注聯儲局會否在下一次會議再次加息,但對投資者來說,更重要的問題應該是在預期美國經濟增長放緩的情況下,聯儲局將如何及何時作出應對。她表示,頗有信心美國整體通脹到年底將降至3%左右,但在短期內跌至2%或以下的機率低於過往。她仍然認為供應面問題和全球因素令通脹重返2%的目標面對更大挑戰,有關因素包括去全球化、政治衝突,以及愈趨頻繁和嚴重的極端天氣事件。 她續認為,勞動力供應將繼續是美國面對的問題,並很可能對服務業造成最大影響。此外,雖然宏利投資管理預期美國失業率將保持相對偏低,但勞工市場或會面對其他挑戰,例如工時不足和工資增長低於長期趨勢。這個情況或會為聯儲局和其他央行提供一些理據,以維持相對過往衰退期間較不寬鬆的貨幣政策。因此,她相信聯儲局下一個減息周期的幅度或會低於過往寬鬆周期。另外,美國經濟或即將新迎來衰退,但資產價格仍有過高跡象,因此當聯儲局面對不同市場事件時,其實施超寬鬆政策的動力與過往相比或有減弱。
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