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中銀香港:貨幣政策協同信貸收縮 美國加息週期接近見頂
阿思達克 06-15 16:09
美國聯邦儲備局在經過議息會議後公布暫停加息,以觀望在經過累計共500點子加息後對經濟的影響。目前利率點陣圖顯示,美聯儲官員預測今年年底利率中位數為5.6%。美聯儲主席鮑威爾在會後聲明指出,在目前更加接近目標利率水平之際,放慢加息節奏是合理的做法。 中銀香港(02388.HK)私人銀行副總經理陳衛全表示,美國5月消費物價指數及採購經理指數皆顯示整體通脹壓力正逐漸紓緩,惟撇除能源價格的核心消費物價指數後,仍然保持在較高的水平,加上勞工市場的走勢,將主導未來央行決定。 雖然美聯儲仍偏向加息,陳氏認為目前美國利率環境已慢慢接近見頂,貨幣政策協同信貸收縮以及美債增發對經濟增長進一步造成壓力或令通脹降溫,而美聯儲在經過一段時間持續觀察後,如果發現通脹回落至接近其目標,不排除美聯儲將在明年採取行動調整政策利率。 另一方面,歐洲央行將於6月15日公布議息結果,市場目前預計其將加息25點子。陳氏認為歐洲央行縱然仍需加息對抗通脹,但隨著能源價格回落以及高息對經濟活動的壓抑效果,歐洲利率亦將跟隨美元利率接近見頂。投資者後續需要關注歐元區調和消費者物價指數變化。
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