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《即日市評》恆指止連升 內銀股弱 「蔚小理」受捧
恆指連升五個交易日(累漲422點或2.2%)後,今日(14日)受中資金融股拖累回落。美國隔晚(13日)公布5月消費者物價指數(CPI)按年升4%低過市場預期,按月升0.1%,而扣除食品和能源的核心CPI按月升0.4%,市場觀望美聯儲局即將公布的議息結果,美股道指及納指隔晚各升0.4%及0.8%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率升至3.811厘,美匯指數跌至103.19,道指期貨最新跌22點或0.06%,納指期貨最新升0.25%。人行公布下調常備借貸便利(SLF)利率10點子,上證綜指今日跌4點或0.14%,收3,228點,深證成指升0.26%,滬深兩市成交額共1萬億人民幣。 恆指高開26點,早段升119點見19,641點,其後曾倒跌169點見19,352點,全日跌113點或0.6%,收19,408點;國指跌41點或0.6%,收6,576點;恆生科技指數升14點或0.4%,收4,052點。大市全日成交總額931.28億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流入13.92億及15.27億元人民幣。攜程-S(09961.HK)股價下滑5.2%,聯通(00762.HK)跌3.1%。 【降SLF利率 內銀股造淡】 內銀股偏軟,工行(01398.HK),招行(03968.HK)及農行(01288.HK)各跌近2.4%、2.5%及1.3%。花旗發表報告指,人行宣布7天期逆回購利率下調10個基點至1.9%,是自去年8月以來首次,並將常備借貸便利(SLF)利率下調10個基點,考慮到6月份人民幣貶值壓力顯著,M2增長強勁,以及銀行對存款基礎重新定價的反應時間所剩無幾,認為今次操作令人感到意外。 花旗預計MLF和LPR即將分別於本月15日及20日下調約10個基點。除此之外,市場亦普遍預期當局會最快於本周五推出一系列廣泛刺激措施。該行料將對內地券商帶來有利經營環境,但同時將為內銀構成整體負面影響,假設MLF和LPR下調10個基點,預測中國銀行業2024年淨息差及盈利將分別受到-5.1個基點及-4%影響。當中,中行、工行(01398.HK)及農行可能會面臨更大淨息差壓力。 中銀國際指,內地政策利率下調向市場發出了維持寬鬆政策立場以穩定經濟增長的信號。政府或會出台更多支持性措施,包括貨幣政策和財政政策以刺激內需。除了下調政策利率外,還可能加快發行地方政府專項債券或利用政策性銀行的融資工具來支持基礎設施投資。 【市寬呈轉弱 蔚小理受捧】 港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為18比21(上日23比17),恆指成份股今日22隻股份上升,下跌股份56隻,升跌比率為28比70(上日為60比36);大市今日錄沽空125.9億元,佔可沽空股份成交額786.6億元的約16%(上日為26%)。 電動車股逆市向上,小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)及蔚來-SW(09866.HK)股價各彈高4.5%及6.6%,理想-W(02015.HK)上揚5.4%。據《上海證券報》引述理想汽車透露,在2023年第24周(6月5日至11日),理想汽車的周銷量達8,400輛再創新高。截至6月11日,理想汽車本月銷量已達1.19萬輛。
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