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惠譽:產能過剩將擠壓中國電池電解液供應商利潤率
評級機構惠譽表示,嚴重產能過剩將在中期內繼續令中國電池電解液及六氟磷酸鋰供應商的盈利能力承壓,儘管該行業將自今年上半年因終端需求增速放緩、供應鏈去庫存引發的低迷需求中有所復甦。由於行業進入壁壘低,具有強周期性特徵的電池電解液行業迅速從2021年的供應吃緊局面,轉變為自2022年伊始的供應過剩。 EVTank的數據顯示,2022年全球電池電解液出貨量超過100萬噸,中國出貨量佔比逾85%。至2025年,全球需求有望以38%的複合年均增速穩步增至270萬噸,而中國供應商已公布的2025年產能目標超過800萬噸,意味著產能過剩局面將持續。無獨有偶,上游六氟磷酸鋰溶質行業的產能過剩也可能在2023年延續。產能過剩疊加鋰價回落已導致六氟磷酸鋰市場價年初迄今下挫三成以上,而2022年內已下跌59%。 長期的產能過剩將不利於前述兩個行業的加工利潤率。此外,碳酸鋰、六氟磷酸鋰和電解液價格之間的高關聯性將導致行業盈利能力隨價格劇烈變動而出現短期寬幅波動。根據市場數據追蹤機構百川盈孚的數據,截至2022年末,電解液行業的單噸毛利均值按年下滑72%至每噸4,700元人民幣(下同),截至2023年5月末進一步降至約每噸1,000元。2023年3至5月間六氟磷酸鋰的單噸毛利為負,但於6月初反彈至每噸逾2萬元。
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