《大行報告》中金:人行重啟新一輪降息 料MLF和LPR降息可能近期落地
中金發表研究報告指,人民銀行7天期逆回購操作中標利率為1.9%,此前為2%。該行認為,是次逆回購利率下調符合預期,有望開啟新一輪降息。根據歷史規律,逆回購利率下調一般與MLF、LPR下調同步,MLF和LPR降息可能近期落地,預計MLF/1年和5年LPR下調幅度或均為10個基點,並於未來1至2年有約20個基點的下調空間。
該行認為,雖然融資成本可能並非當前經濟核心矛盾,降息對信貸需求的邊際刺激作用有限,但利率作為重要的貨幣政策工具仍然有不可取代的信號作用。
中金認為內地政策可能已經邊際更加轉向全力支持經濟,後續或將推出更多「穩增長」政策,包括加大信貸投放力度、房地產貸款接續性政策、更大力度推進保交樓及穩妥化解地方隱性債務。
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