《大行報告》花旗料人行快將下調一年期MLF和LPR利率各10點子 寬鬆措施整體上不利內銀
花旗發表研究報告指,人民銀行宣布7天期逆回購利率下調10個基點至1.9%,是自去年8月以來首次,並將常備借貸便利(SLF)利率下調10個基點,考慮到6月份人民幣貶值壓力顯著,M2增長強勁,以及銀行對存款基礎重新定價的反應時間所剩無幾,認為今次操作令人感到意外。
花旗認為,當局較預期提早推出政策降息,反映人行採取逆周期調節及穩定增長的迫切性,因此預計MLF和LPR即將分別於本月15日及20日下調約10個基點。除此之外,市場亦普遍預期當局會最快於本周五推出一系列廣泛刺激措施。
該行預期將對內地券商帶來有利經營環境,但同時將為內銀構成整體負面影響,假設MLF和LPR下調10個基點,預測中國銀行業2024年淨息差及盈利將分別受到-5.1個基點及-4%影響。
當中,中行(03988.HK)、工行(01398.HK)及農行(01288.HK)可能會面臨更大淨息差壓力。而按揭貸款敞口較高的銀行,包括建行(00939.HK)、工行及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)亦將受到衝擊。
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