光大證券:聯儲局或最快明年3月減息 看淡下半年美元走勢
光大證券國際董事兼產品開發及零售研究部主管陳政生表示,參考美國過去四次加息週期,即由結束加息週期至展開減息週期,該時間間隔平均值約爲九個月左右,故預料聯儲局最快將於明年3月減息。
他表示,從中短線看來,直至今年底,較爲看淡美元走勢,主要是市場憧憬減息。他估計,若美匯指數跌穿100.8後,或下試94.6水平,反彈阻力位置爲105.8水平;相反,若聯儲局將於明年首季踏入減息週期,預料明年中美匯走勢將不跌反升。
他表示,對人民幣持「中性」看法,人民幣兌美元匯率區間介乎6.7至7.37水平,同時偏好歐元,目標介乎1.03至1.17水平,主要是歐洲央行仍處於加息週期。
至於商品方面,他表示偏好黃金,主要是避險性質偏強,呈有上行空間,目標介乎每盎司1,810美元至2,200美元水平;在油價方面,他認爲視乎環球經濟表現,價格目標介乎每桶63美元至84美元水平之間,認爲當前價格水平屬下行區間內,短期內並不太樂觀,持「中性」看法。
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