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大行評級 | 瑞信:料銀行淨息差有下行風險 下調農行及中信銀行評級
格隆匯6月13日丨瑞信發表研究報吿預計,在貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調、未償還抵押貸款打折或推出再抵押產品的情況下,銀行的淨息差將面臨下行風險。如果中國經濟增長急劇放緩,銀行的國民服務負擔可能會再次增加,故將中信銀行H股(0998.HK)評級由“優於大市”下調至“中性”,A股(601998.SH)評級亦由“優於大市”下調至“遜於大市”;又將農業銀行A股(601288.SH)評級由“優於大市”下調至“中性”。同時,瑞信下調中信銀行的2023年每股盈利預測2.7%,以及農業銀行的每股盈利預測2%。瑞信預計,由於需求疲軟,未來幾個季度淨息差將繼續輕微下降。瑞信對全年的手續費增長持更謹慎態度。農行次季為淡季,但該行認為從次季到第四季度增加50%的新增貸款應該不難,農行港股股息率仍高於8%,對於市場動盪中尋求穩定的投資者來説,值得考慮。
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