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汽車股強勢拉升!政策暖風吹不停,行業或迎向上週期?

6月9日,汽車產業鏈股開盤強勢拉昇。汽車整車、汽車零部件、汽車服務、新能源汽車等相關板塊走高,其中汽車整車板塊升幅最大。個股方面,截至午間收盤,亞星客車、中通客車升停,安凱客車、中國重汽升超5%,江鈴汽車、東風汽車等升超3%。

另外,新能源汽車板塊個股表現活躍。截至發稿,泰祥股份、超達裝備20CM升停,英利汽車、中通客車、浙江世寶、世紀華通、亞星客車、多力科技等股升停。

消息面上,商務部統籌開展"百城聯動"汽車節和"千縣萬鎮"新能源汽車消費季活動,推動適銷對路車型下鄉。活動強化購車優惠政策支持,加強企業等出台支持汽車消費的針對性政策舉措。

"百城聯動",釋放消費潛力

6月以來,汽車行業政策利好消息不斷。

繼6月2日國務院常務會議提出延續和優化新能源汽車車輛購置税減免政策,進一步明確對於新能源汽車行業的支持之後。昨日,商務部透露將統籌開展"百城聯動"汽車節和"千縣萬鎮"新能源汽車消費季活動,時間為6月到12月。

(1)"百城聯動"汽車節。根據活動安排,商務部將建立"百城聯動"重點活動清單,從各地推薦的候選城市中選擇約100個特色鮮明、優勢互補的城市開展促銷活動。推動地方、企業出台支持汽車消費的針對性政策舉措,發揮地方財政資金作用,鼓勵金融機構出台汽車信貸金融支持措施。

(2)"千縣萬鎮"消費季。商務部將鼓勵企業針對農村地區特點,推動適銷對路車型下鄉,豐富農村新能源汽車產品供應。引導企業構建下沉銷售維修服務渠道,加強技術人員培訓,完善農村地區新能源汽車售後維修服務網絡。同時,推動完善農村充電基礎設施,推進農村集中式公共充電樁場站建設。

本次商務部發布組織開展汽車促消費活動的通知,實際上是國常會政策的進一步落地,將有助於進一步釋放汽車消費潛力。

對此,天風證券表示,近期出台的新能源汽車下鄉和新能源汽車購置税減免延續兩項利好政策,都有助於國內新能源消費潛力進一步釋放,提升新能源汽車整體滲透率,支撐新能源汽車產銷繼續穩健增長。

行業或迎來向上週期

回顧5月,我國乘用車市場增長態勢良好。

據乘聯會最新數據統計,2023年5月乘用車市場零售達到174.2萬輛,同比增長28.6%,環比增長7.3%。今年以來累計零售763.2萬輛,同比增長4.2%,1-5月車市零售呈現逐月環比持續上升的良好態勢。

其中,5月新能源車市場零售58.0萬輛,同比增長60.9%,環比增長10.5%。今年以來累計零售242.1萬輛,同比增長41.1%。5月新能源車國內零售滲透率33.3%,較去年同期26.6%的滲透率提升了6.7個百分點。

車市增長態勢良好有兩方面原因:一是3月以來的促銷價格熱度逐漸消退,消費者觀望情緒得以緩解,加之近期大量新品和低價新款推出,消費需求有所釋放。二是今年的上海車展等豐富多彩的促消活動,對提振消費信心有較好的增進效果。此外,隨着國六B庫存延期銷售的信息明確,市場情緒進一步穩定,零售保持較旺局面。

展望未來,隨着經濟持續復甦以及更多利好政策落地,國內汽車市場或迎來行業向上週期。

光大證券表示,行業呈現平穩復甦趨勢,但市場競爭依然激烈;建議關注板塊平穩復甦帶來的結構性機會。看好2023年具有較強車型改善週期、用户畫像差異化定位競爭的新勢力車企、出口+產業鏈成本控制能力較強+銷量與業績兑現能力較強的自主新能源車企、以及市佔率抬升/新定點釋放+年降消化能力強+業務多元化的零部件公司。

華安證券指出,汽車消費政策暖風襲來,行業景氣度加速恢復。後續新能源汽車購置税減免細則落地,將有效拉動新能源汽車的銷量,迎來行業向上週期。

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