瑞銀料今年中國經濟增長達5.7% 亞洲半導體股估值較低
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發報告指出,儘管近期動能有所放緩,但中國經濟復甦趨勢未變,認為今年國內生產總值(GDP)年增率仍有望達到5.7%左右,但還需更多政策措施來提振民營部門的信心。
報告提及,企業盈利改善和地緣政治局勢更趨明朗,將為中國股票帶來短期催化劑,繼續看好經濟復甦的受益者,同時建議投資者透過槓鈴策略來應對短期波動。信用債方面則繼續看好投資級債,在年底前基準利率可能走低的背景下建議採取槓鈴策略。鑑於中美經濟增長分歧,美元兌人民幣應在明年3月前朝6.5下跌。
瑞銀財管另稱,今年全球科技股的回報率達到15%至20%,部分扳回2022年35%的跌幅。其中,半導體和硬體類股領漲,主要是受益於半導體週期見底的預期和生成式人工智慧(AI)的需求升溫。
報告認為,在近期反彈之後估值已高以及強週期性的領域存在風險,例如全球(亞洲除外)半導體子行業。瑞銀財管認為,減少部分今年以來強勁上揚的大型公司持股,分散至估值更具吸引力的精選半導體股以及亞洲半導體類股,是審慎之舉。這些半導體股票的估值較低,風險回報更具吸引力,而且下半年利潤率前景有所改善。
瑞銀財管建議轉向軟體和互聯網等週期中段的行業,並分散配置至估值更具吸引力的領域,如亞洲半導體。
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