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凱基亞洲:恆指年末目標22,100點 料中國經濟全年增長逾5.5%
凱基投顧董事長暨總經理朱晏民表示,上調了今年恆指成份股的每股盈利至2,085元,按年增長約12.5%,又把恆指年末的預測市盈率調升至10.6倍,故此上修恆指年末目標價至22,100點。 凱基亞洲指,焦點股包括中移動(00941.HK)、中國銀行(03988.HK);舊經濟股如友邦保險(01299.HK)及長江基建(01038.HK);新經濟股則有騰迅(00700.HK)及比亞迪(01211.HK)。 朱晏民認同中國經濟已經擺脫了去年的增長困境,修復性復甦已經全面展開,首季經濟增長率更爲全年經濟復常開了一個好頭,今年經濟表現可望優於兩會訂下的5%目標。惟若與市場稍爲樂觀的全年經濟增長展望比較,凱基投資預測暫略爲保守,原因是近月多項經濟數據出現矛盾,反映復甦勢頭不平均。凱基亞洲預期,最終今年經濟增長或達5.5%以上,當中的最大變數爲消費支出的回升速度。 他預期,人民銀行或會於未來三個月內放寬貨幣政策,以刺激經濟保持復甦力度,又料中美關係將於下半年繼續成爲市場焦點,投資者需繼續留意事態發展,以調整經濟展望及投資部署。 凱基亞洲投資策略部主管溫傑指,由於市場已顯着調升對內地經濟的展望,投資者務必關注往後經濟數據及企業盈利表現。他預計中央將進一步加推政策以穩定復甦苗頭,展望下半年港股有望在波動中向好。策略上,投資者應從基本因素人手,建立攻守兼備的港股投資組合。 對於推出人民幣雙櫃檯,他指,措施令股票市場更容易交易,惟預期不會對股市成交及股價有大的影響。他強調投資者購買股票是看潛力,而不僅僅是貨幣上的便利,認爲市場不需要無限放大措施。 至於中國降低存款利率,他認爲措施是爲了擴大息差及刺激借貸,並預料內地將於三個月加推刺激政策,相信中國在措施上會有「組合拳」,包括降準及降息等。
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