大摩:料黃金和珠寶零售額增長放緩 降周大福目標價
格隆匯6月5日丨大摩發研報指,受惠於家庭收入增長以及部分過剩的儲蓄有機會釋放,該行預期香港及內地黃金和珠寶零售額在下半年將保持正增長,但將增幅將由上半年的17%收窄至下半年的11%,基於更高的基數,以及消費有機會轉移到其他類別。又預期整體零售額增長將由上半年的8%加速至下半年的13%。
該行對於行業相關公司的評級,由高至低分別為周大生(2867.HK),目標價由18.5元人民幣升至20.5元人民幣,予“增持”評級;周大福(1929.HK),目標價由17港元降至16港元,予“與大市同步”評級;老鳳祥(600612.SH),目標價由38元人民幣升至47元人民幣,予“減持”評級。
該行又認為,因疫情防控而令部分慶祝活動如婚禮和慶祝新生嬰兒等,送禮的需求被壓抑,但該行強調至2023年以來,結婚人數一直呈下降趨勢。而金價上升僅對周大福有利,周大生和老鳳祥的利潤對金價並不敏感。
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