瑞銀汪濤料中國下半年經濟溫和復甦 至2030年平均增長逾4%
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,該行維持2020至2030年間中國平均經濟增長介乎4%至4.5%的預測,認為中國較難再重回6%至7%的高速經濟增長,但相信增長依然會高於區內經濟體,並繼續成為全球經濟增長主要動力,今年下半年則預期會延續上半年溫和復甦趨勢。
她指出,中國債務已達到GDP規模約300%,形容當局面對的挑戰不小,但預期在較高居民存款水平、政府嚴控走資,以及國有銀行支持下,大規模債務違約及經濟衰退等情況不太可能會發生,認為銀行由國家擁有將有助增強居民存款信心。
雖然市場普遍期望人民銀行出手解決地方政府債務問題,但汪濤預期機會不大,短期內預料仍要依靠銀行進行再融資及展期。由於土地銷售不能再成為主要收入來源,地方政府亦可能需要出售土地以外的資產,長此下去地方政府可提供的金融工具及資源將減少,市場料由企業主導發展。
談及樓市刺激措施,她預期當局需要時間去了解房地產市場走勢,若樓市銷售未來幾個月仍持續下跌,則預期會推出下調首付要求等一系列支持政策,相信7月底政治局會議後當局會作進一步評估。
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