港股配置：大跌時靠中特估防禦，大漲時待科網股反彈
對於近期恆生指數持續下跌，國海證券認爲有如下幾個原因：
（1） 國內經濟環比走弱是核心原因，海外因素重要性減弱，未來關鍵是需要國內經濟政策來助推經濟持續復甦。人民幣匯率貶值的主要原因也是國內經濟動能環比轉弱。
（2） 美國6月中旬加息預期升溫：美國4月PCE數據超預期，美國通脹韌性仍較強，美聯儲停止加息時間點或被延後。
（3） 港股部分互聯網公司因業務具有消費屬性，與經濟狀態關聯度較高，經濟復甦強弱和節奏不僅影響週期行業，也影響大型平臺經濟公司。
該機構指出，港股大跌時可配置中特估，中特估板塊相對抗跌。中特估的本質是基於高股息、低估值的防禦策略而不是存粹的主題投資。
中特估有三個特點需要明確，第一，高股息和低估值隨着股價上漲可能股息率下滑、估值上升；第二，部分中特估股票是順週期股票，投資者看重的是分紅屬性，而非它們是順週期，因爲目前經濟修復環比變弱，順週期理論上反而不容易上漲；第三，很多中特估是大盤藍籌股，目前股市行情不佳，流動性不足，中特估更可能慢漲，而不是持續快漲。
三季度港股大部分行業表現不佳，雖然每年情況不一樣不能刻舟求劍，但是仍然可以提供一定的參考價值。我們的基準判斷是港股未來出現反彈後遇見阻力位或新的風險或再次下跌，今年的港股市場底可能出現在下半年，除非2季度釋放完所有風險，但一些風險是漸進變化的而非孤立事件且不可被折現，所以潛在風險不能在之前的市場下跌中被全部定價。
另外，港股大漲時可待科網股反彈：2022年11月開始港股反彈大漲時科網股也出現強力反彈。港股大跌時往往導致流動性好的科網龍頭股被拋售，因爲這些股票被投資者扎堆持倉，但指數大跌可能掩蓋個股基本面優勢。
國海證券表示，等港股大漲時，這類股票彈性也往往很大，不僅因爲這些股票佔指數權重大，更因爲這些股票是港股的特色標的（A股缺乏大型平臺經濟公司板塊，但是並不缺中特估）而且是重要的核心資產。海外方面，從流動性的角度，未來若美聯儲停止加息，也有利於科網股的估值提升。此外，未來若美聯儲停止加息，對醫藥和黃金等板塊也是利好。
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