海外市場大漲的“底氣”何在，“映射”什麼交易邏輯？
年初以來，歐日股指連創新高、納指也強勢反彈。持續高強度加息的背景下，海外市場大漲的“底氣”何在、又映射出了哪些值得關注的“交易邏輯”？本文分析，可供參考。
年初以來，海外發達國家股指表現亮眼，歐日股指相繼創下新高，美國納指也強勢反彈。截至5月27日，納指大漲24%，法國CAC40和德國DAX於5月19日雙雙創下歷史新高，日經225也在不斷刷新1990年以來的新高。結構上，海外發達國家市場中大盤股、成長股表現明顯佔優。行業層面，信息技術與可選消費業的表現尤爲突出。
本輪日股上漲主要由估值驅動，背後有四方面支撐：1）日本經濟基本面向好，一季度GDP增速1.2%、大超預期；2）植田上任後多次強調將維繫政策寬鬆，融資成本極低；3）日經225中位市淨率僅0.95，估值處於低位；4）3月31日，東證所引導公司治理，市場情緒提振。4月11日巴菲特訪日後，4.7萬億日元的外資大量涌入，快速推升日股。
歐股受益於估值擡升、盈利向好的“戴維斯雙擊”。1）盈利端，歐股一季報普遍向好，斯託克600成分股中已發佈業績的299家公司，共187家業績高於預期。2）估值端，一方面，經濟下行壓力緩和，市場情緒提振，歐洲經濟衰退預期由年初的80%走低至40%；另一方面，奢侈品與芯片業預期大幅改善，合計拉動斯託克50指數擡升6.9%。
本輪美股的上漲完全由估值端貢獻，8家頭部科技企業是上漲的核心驅動。年初至今，美股上漲的同時、盈利反而下滑0.5%；“AI浪潮”中遠期業績指引大幅擡升的科技型企業“拔估值”是本輪行情的主要驅動。事實上，剔除8家頭部科技企業後，年初以來標普500指數下跌0.1%；指數的上漲完全由這8家頭部科技企業拉動。
歐美市場行情結構性特徵顯著，週期板塊滯漲、增量資金匱乏，已經透露出對經濟基本面的隱憂。3月以來歐美週期板塊相對防禦性板塊明顯走弱，年初以來美股市場機構資金外流409億美元，已在反映市場對歐美衰退的“擔憂”。向後看，歐美經濟“難逃衰退”，而歷輪衰退，歐美股市的最低點均在步入衰退期後纔出現，後續回調風險不容忽視。
日股本輪普漲行情受益於經濟修復、外資流入、政策支持，未來或仍有一定延續性。本輪日股並非政策支持下生拔估值；市淨率0.5以下的個股僅上漲1.0%、明顯滯漲，4月日股的回購率降至1.4%、“回購潮”尚未掀起。“日特估”實質是提升市場對回購等提高資本效率行爲的定價；隨着基本面修復、資本效率改善，日股有望迎來“戴維斯雙擊”。
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