《內地樓市》惠譽:內地二手住房市場降溫 房市復甦之路曲折
評級機構惠譽認為,中國二手住房市場自4月以來持續降溫,待售房源數量減少、報價下調且成交量萎縮。繼今年首季的強勁反彈後,此輪二手住房市場增長放緩表明,不明朗的經濟前景和疲弱的就業狀況導致購房者信心薄弱。
惠譽指出,今年首季內地二手住房市場成交量和掛牌價反彈,是由於此前出行受限和大規模感染期間積累的需求得到釋放,且中國取消防疫管控並重啟經濟後市場對經濟前景持樂觀態度。然而,4月二手住房市場復甦勢頭減弱,且短期內可能無法重振旗鼓,因為累積的需求已消化,且實際經濟復甦不及預期打擊購房者信心。
該行稱,4月平均掛牌價下調,可能是因為購房者選擇觀望等待,而改善型購房者為加速交易進程降價出售現有住房。掛牌房源數量亦有所減少,這表明許多業主在當前價格承壓情況下推遲出售住房,這或將繼續拖累成交量。
此外,惠譽的研究表明,由於供應過剩和人口外流,低線城市的房市復甦或將慢於高線城市。同時,大戶型的價格更加堅挺,這表明改善型住房需求強勁,能夠滿足改善型住房需求的房企將從該趨勢中受益。
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