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温氏股份(300498.SZ):堅持穩健生產,不會過分依賴預測的短期市場價格,大幅調整正常的生產經營節奏
格隆匯 05-29 09:14

格隆匯5月29日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)近期組織多場路演活動,問答環節中,就“公司如何判斷豬價未來走勢?若今年一年豬價都處於低迷狀態,公司將如何應對?”,公司回覆稱,(1)豬價走勢判斷

與非瘟前相比,近幾年豬價波動較大,豬價擾動因素較非瘟前發生了較大的變化,豬價走勢難以精確預測。前期公司預測春節後為消費淡季,豬價走低符合預期,但低迷持續時間略超預期。

自年初以來,豬價已持續低迷5個多月,特別是春節前後一季度,豬市場價格較低。按照往年經驗,一年之中8-10月份為傳統消費旺季,傳統節日、社會慶祝活動等較多,疊加部分地區醃臘需求,社會肉類消費需求相比上半年更加旺盛,豬價往往較好。投資者也可參考生豬期貨的遠期價格,綜合研判未來豬價的走勢。

以上為往年的經驗,並非對市場豬價的指引和精確判斷,僅供投資者參考,請理性判斷。

(2)應對方式

公司堅持穩健生產,總體採取均衡投苗和穩健出欄的方式進行大生產。公司不會過分依賴預測的短期市場價格,大幅調整正常的生產經營節奏。

就目前來看,豬週期依然存在。若今年一年豬價均維持在低迷狀態,行業可能出現較大規模度的產能去化現象,供需關係發生變化後,豬價會有好轉,豬價反彈高度可能更高。

目前公司已提前儲備了較為充足的資金。截至4月末,公司各類可用資金近100億元,其中可隨時使用的資金近70億元,用以應對可能的較長時間的低迷行情,確保生產經營的穩定性。公司有充足的底氣、信心和經驗順利穿越低迷行情週期。

因此,公司會從自身出發,做好日常的生產管理,努力降低生產成本,提升核心競爭力,熬過低迷週期,迎接盈利週期。

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