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小摩警告:商業地產或是下一個“爆雷點”
uSMART盈立智投 05-23 18:36

今年以來,存款擠兌已導致三家美國銀行倒閉,但另一種擔憂正在浮現。摩根大通首席執行官傑米•戴蒙週一表示,商業房地產是最有可能給銀行帶來麻煩的領域。

“總是有越位的情況,”戴蒙表示。“在這種情況下,越位的可能是房地產。可能是某些地點,某些辦公物業,某些建築貸款。這可能是孤立的;並不是每家銀行都是如此。”

由於低利率和新冠疫情期間釋放的大量刺激資金,過去幾年美國銀行的貸款違約率處於歷史低位。但美聯儲提高利率以對抗通脹,這改變了形勢。包括科技中心舊金山在內的一些市場的商業建築可能會受到打擊,因爲遠程辦公人員不願回到辦公室。

“信貸週期將出現。我的觀點是,這將是非常正常的”,除了房地產,戴蒙表示。

戴蒙表示,如果失業率急劇上升,信用卡損失率可能飆升至6%或7%。但他補充說,這仍將低於2008年危機期間的10%。

此外,戴蒙表示,銀行,尤其是受近期金融動盪影響最大的小型銀行,需要爲利率遠高於多數人預期的水平做好準備。

戴蒙表示:“我認爲每個人都應該爲利率從現在開始走高做好準備,”最高可達6%或7%。

美聯儲上個月得出結論,利率風險管理不善是今年早些時候硅谷銀行倒閉的原因之一。

戴蒙表示,銀行業已經在通過控制貸款活動,爲潛在損失和監管積累資金。

他表示:“你已經看到信貸收緊,因爲銀行保留資本最簡單的方法就是不發放下一筆貸款。”

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