美國債務上限解決就安全了？抽走萬億流動性，銀行或再遇流動危機
一旦美國財政部在債務上限達成後重建其現金賬戶餘額，將從市場抽走最多達1.2萬億美元的流動性，或進一步增加銀行倒閉的風險。
隨着債務上限談判本週末陷入僵局，市場等待拜登從G7峯會返回美國後的後續談判。
然而，市場分析認爲，一旦債務上限危機得到解決，美國財政部將重返舉債超萬億美元，以補足其現金儲備（TGA）賬戶。那麼市場的流動性可能會被財政部後續發行的國債抽乾，銀行系統將再次面臨巨大的風險。
摩根士丹利首席全球經濟學家Seth Carpenter指出，在2011年和2013年兩次債務危機中，國會在最後一刻才終於提高了債務上限。每一次，在提高債務限額後，財政部都會通過重新發行大量的國債，從市場上吸納大量現金，以補充TGA。
而本次債務上限危機和過往相比，還多個關鍵區別：即美聯儲逆回購工具RRP。
美聯儲逆回購工具在2013年啓用，用於吸收市場上過剩的現金。這一工具從貨幣市場基金和其他機構吸收資金，並在第二天返還資金。逆回購工具的年化利率高達4.8%，遠高於大多數銀行提供的利率。目前，美聯儲逆回購賬戶里大約有2.25萬億美元。
由於RRP的存在，部分原本流向銀行系統的資金被抽走，減少了銀行系統的儲備。此外，自從加息週期啓動以來，美國國債持續走熊，美債和銀行存款的利差進一步擴大，也推動儲戶進一步將資金投入貨幣市場基金以及逆回購工具。
在債務上限的約束下，美國財政部無法繼續舉債，TGA餘額正在被快速耗盡。此前，財政部TGA上一般會至少保持5000億美元左右的現金儲備。等到債務上限危機解決之後，財政部將通過舉債補充TGA賬戶。
Seth Carpenter指出，快速重建TGA將消耗大約6000億至1.2萬億美元的資金，問題就在於，這部分資金將來自哪里？
如果TGA資金主要來自逆回購工具，那麼可能不會影響銀行準備金水平。
然而Carpenter警告稱，由於當前RRP的利率更有吸引力，所以如果這1.2萬億資金需要從銀行的準備金身上出，那就意味着銀行的流動性將雪上加霜，或再度增加銀行倒閉的風險。
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